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SWINGTraderIndia - Weekly Big Picture June 25 2021

Author: Pawan JaiswalRahi Masoom Razayathisha naik

Posted Date: June 28 2021 | Reading Time: 11 minutes
In our weekly report published on June 18, we had mentioned, “Nifty may move in the sideways trend in the range of 15,900–15,500 and therefore we advised our traders to have a cautious approach in the coming week.”
 

 
The index started on a positive bias last week and closed on a positive note as well. The index formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart. However, the index was not able to surpass the high of 15,901 mark but successfully managed to protect the low of the previous week, which was 15,451. The momentum indicator RSI is trending upward and currently placed at 68. However, another trend indicator, the weekly MACD, is trending above the central line with a positive crossover. Apart from RSI and MACD, the index is trending above all long-term key moving averages on the weekly chart with a positive directional moving index.
 
Likewise, on the daily chart, the index was positive on all four days, except for one day, which was June 23, just one day ahead of the monthly expiry. On Wednesday, Nifty was very volatile, and it was oscillating between gains and losses, and Wednesday's session finally ended up with a loss of 0.54% (i.e., loss of 86 points). The index is trading above all its key moving averages. Further, the momentum indicator RSI is trending upward and is currently placed at 65. Another technical indicator, the daily MACD, is trending above its central line but with a negative crossover.
 
On the options data front, PCR for monthly contracts expiring July 29 stands at 1.39. From the OI data perspective, for monthly contracts expiring July 29, maximum Call OI built up was seen for 16,500 strike price, followed by 16,000 strike price, which piled up to 34.30 lakh contracts and 34.09 lakh contracts, respectively. Likewise, maximum Put OI built up was seen for 15,500 strike price, followed by 15,000 strike price, which piled up to 52.77 lakh contracts and 49.24 lakh contracts, respectively. Further, strike-specific option data suggests that Nifty might face strong resistance at 16,000 levels, followed by 16,300. On the downside, it might take support near 15,500 levels, followed by 15,200.
 
As per the O’Neil Methodology of market direction, the market is currently in a “Confirmed Uptrend” with three distribution days in the last 25 trading sessions.
 
Summary
 
All the above technical parameters, along with derivative data and O’Neil Methodology of market direction, indicate that the index is facing strong resistance at the 15,900 mark. Once Nifty reclaims and settles above 15,900 level, our bias would turn positive, and Nifty might head toward the 16,000–16,100 range. However, immediate support is placed at 15,400, and a breach of this support might see Nifty trend lower. We advise our traders to have a cautious approach in the coming week.
 
FII/ DII Activity in the Fourth Week of June
 

 
Current Status of Major Sectoral Indices - Per O’Neil Methodology
 

 
Current Status of Major Global Indices - Per O’Neil Methodology
 

 
SWINGTrader India performance chart
 

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