In our monthly report published on June 04, we had mentioned, “the index is most probably ready to move toward 15,900–16,200 levels in the upcoming weeks. We advise our subscribers to follow the buy-on-dip strategy until the
index is trading above 15,200–14,900”. Last week, Nifty50
gained 0.82%, while Bank Nifty
lost 0.69% and the rest of the sectors performed well.
The index opened on a positive note last week and formed a small bullish candle with lower shadow, with a higher-high and higher-low price structure. The index closed at an all-time high on a weekly closing basis at around 15,800 level. The momentum indicator RSI on the weekly chart is trending upward and approaches 69 level after forming a “W” pattern on the weekly RSI. However, another technical indicator, the weekly MACD, is still trending below its negative crossover above the central line. Apart from RSI and MACD, the index is trending above all long-term key moving averages on the weekly chart with positive directional moving index.
Likewise, in the last week, the index traded in an upward trend after breakout above the downward-sloping trendline and touched a new all-time high of 15,835. Currently, the index is trading between upward-sloping parallel trend lines with a positive bias. The analysis of the last seven days’ daily price action indicates the index was trading in a narrow zone of 15,570–15,780 and closed above this narrow range on the last day of week, i.e., Friday. The Nifty50
is trading above all key moving averages, i.e., its 21-DMA, 50-DMA
, and 200-DMA
and is currently placed around 5.60% and 15.76% above 50-DMA
, respectively. Further, momentum indicator RSI is trending in bullish territory with positive crossover along with positive MACD and DMI/ADX.
On the options data front, PCR for weekly contracts expiring June 17 stands at 1.04 whereas month-end data as of June 24 stands at 1.60. From the OI data perspective, for weekly contracts expiring June 17, maximum Call OI built up was seen for 16,000 strike price, followed by 15,800 strike price, which piled up to 39.87 lakh contracts and 36.83 lakh contracts, respectively. For contracts expiring June 24, maximum Call OI built up was seen for 16,000 strike price, followed by 16,100 strike price, which piled up to 32.86 lakh contracts and 18.81 lakh contracts, respectively. Likewise, maximum Put OI built up was seen for 15,000 strike price, followed by 15,700 strike price, which piled up to 52.31 lakh contracts and 33.28 lakh contracts, respectively. For contracts expiring June 24, maximum Put OI built up was seen for
15,000 strike price, followed by 15,500 strike price, which piled up to 40.21 lakh contracts and 37.05 lakh contracts, respectively.
Further, as per O’Neil Methodology of market direction, the current market is in a “Confirmed Uptrend
” with two distribution days
in the last 25 trading sessions. Summary
All the above-mentioned technical parameters, along with derivative data and O’Neil Methodology of market direction, indicate a bullish trend in the coming days. From now onward, our bias would remain positive. However, the index may face some resistance around the psychological level of 16,000.
From now onwards, sustainable trading above 15,800 may open a fresh upward window toward 16,000–16,200 levels. Apart from Nifty50, Bank Nifty traded as laggard and underperformed the market. However, other major sectoral indexes outperformed the market. In the last week, Nifty IT
, Nifty Metal
, Nifty Pharma
, and Nifty Realty
sector did well.
In the coming week, we expect IT, Metal, Pharma, and Realty may do well and our bias would remain positive in these spaces. FII/ DII Activity in the Second Week of June Current Status of Major Sectoral Indices - Per O’Neil Methodology Current Status of Major Global Indices - Per O’Neil Methodology SWINGTrader India performance chart
The Unlock Trade: Eat, Drink, and Be Merry
SWINGTraderIndia -Monthly Big Picture June 04 2021
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